Dengue, one of the major vector borne diseases has shown a rapid increase over India in recent years. The trend seems to be a major concern for public health. Over the recent years, major dengue outbreaks have been seen regularly across India. Studies have shown that meteorological factors that influence transmission intensity of vector borne disease such as Dengue include temperature, humidity, and rainfall patterns. In view of that, it is very important to understand the degree of association of Dengue with local climatic factors and demographic parameters in order to predict its spread in future and to build a robust warning system as a part of mitigation measures. IRADe with support from Department of Science & Technology, Govt. of India will undertake an inter-disciplinary research connecting meteorology, statistical modelling and geo-spatial mapping to develop the warning system. The project aims to develop future scenarios of Dengue outbreak using climate projection based on statistical model and to build an early warning system.
Spatial maps showing ward level Dengue incidences in Delhi and Rajkot were prepared using Geographic Information System (GIS) for showing the trends of Dengue incidences in the last decade as per data collected from the city Municipal Corporations. Dengue hotspots were identified for both the cities. Primary surveys were carried out to collect information about incidences, possible local factors and their effects and impacts. In addition, we have initiated survey in collaboration with Rajkot Municipal Corporation on ward wise number of daily breeding sites detected, daily number of cases reported to further assess the linkages between climate variables and Dengue incidences. Trend analysis of Dengue cases in Rajkot were carried out at ward level for incidences that occurred during 2011-2017 and their relationship with the slum locations were studied.
Climate data has now been collected for the city of Rajkot and further week wise cases of vector borne diseases have been collected. Regression model is being run to assess the relationship between the climate variables and Mosquito borne cases. Based on the on-going research, awareness material for strategy for Dengue prevention and management for Rajkot city was also drafted.