Prediction of Dengue with Climate Change
- Project Status: Ongoing
- Project Area: Delhi and Rajkot
- Funder: Department of Science and Technology, Government of India
Dengue, one of the major vector borne diseases has shown a rapid increase over India in recent years. The trend seems to be a major concern for public health. Over the recent years, major dengue outbreaks have been seen regularly across India. Studies have shown that meteorological factors that influence transmission intensity of vector borne disease such as Dengue include temperature, humidity, and rainfall patterns. In view of that, it is very important to understand the degree of association of Dengue with local climatic factors and demographic parameters in order to predict its spread in future and to build a robust warning system as a part of mitigation measures. IRADe with support from Department of Science & Technology, Govt. of India will undertake an inter-disciplinary research connecting meteorology, statistical modelling and geo-spatial mapping to develop the warning system. The project aims to develop future scenarios of Dengue outbreak using climate projection based on statistical model and to build an early warning system.
Spatial maps showing ward level Dengue incidences in Delhi and Rajkot were prepared using Geographic Information System (GIS) for showing the trends of Dengue incidences in the last decade as per data collected from the city Municipal Corporations. Dengue hotspots were identified for both the cities. Primary surveys were carried out to collect information about incidences, possible local factors and their effects and impacts. In addition, we have initiated survey in collaboration with Rajkot Municipal Corporation on ward wise number of daily breeding sites detected, daily number of cases reported to further assess the linkages between climate variables and Dengue incidences. Trend analysis of Dengue cases in Rajkot were carried out at ward level for incidences that occurred during 2011-2017 and their relationship with the slum locations were studied.
Climate data has now been collected for the city of Rajkot and further week wise cases of vector borne diseases have been collected. Regression model is being run to assess the relationship between the climate variables and Mosquito borne cases. Based on the on-going research, awareness material for strategy for Dengue prevention and management for Rajkot city was also drafted.
- To map the distribution and intensity of Dengue spread over Delhi and Rajkot on a fine spatial scale for the last few years
- To analyze the variation of climatic parameters including temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and ENSO index over Delhi and Rajkot for the past ten years.
- To find the co-relation between climatic parameters and factor such as demographic pattern with Dengue distribution at municipal levels.
- To develop future scenarios of Dengue outbreak using climate projection based on statistical model and to build an early warning system covering the whole range of projected climate scenarios.
- To help in building the future adaptation plan well in advance.
- Mapping of current Dengue affected zones in Delhi and Rajkot city in Gujarat
- Both the present day inter annual variability and seasonal variability of Dengue affected cases over Delhi and Rajkot city
- Temperature range in Delhi and Rajkot, conducive for Dengue propagation.
- Development of an early warning system for Dengue and similar vector borne diseases in Delhi and Rajkot.
- Establishing Correlation between vector inhabited and climatic variability Establishing statistical dependence of climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation and relative humidity on Dengue spread
- Mapping out potential Dengue vulnerable zones in Delhi and Rajkot for future up to the year 2020 & 2030.
- An action plan for Delhi incorporating cost-effective adaptation measures to reduce the impact of Dengue and other mosquito borne diseases.
Reports and Publications
- HSAP for Rajkot City
- Progress Report – Climate Adaptive Action Plans to Manage Heat Stress in Indian Cities